The influx of climate refugees would be a new considerable challenge to many Asian countries as well as the rest of the world in the context of sea-level rising, droughts, deserted lands, floods, natural disasters… increasingly threatening people’s livelihood.
Latest reports of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) indicated that there would be more than 50 million climate refugees throughout the world by 2050. However, the number would reach 200 million people, many other studies said. English Christian Aid was even much more pessimistic with the forecast of over 1 billion climate refugees - i.e. one fifth of the global population would have to leave their hometowns by mid this century. The forecast also said there would be 1-3 billion people falling in to water shortage, 200 – 600 million people falling into food shortage.
Scientists mentioned the worst scenario that the sea-level would rise by 2 meters, threatening the survival of 60% of 39 big cities of the world as New York, Amsterdam, Roma, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sidney…
Supposing the sea level rises by 0.5 meter, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) was concerned that 11 southeastern Asian big cities of high population density, located nearby sea coasts and low lands would face serious threats of floods and natural disasters, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), Jakarta (Indonesia), Manila (Philippines), Calcutta (India), Phnom Penh (Cambodia), Ho Chi Minh City (Viet Nam), Shanghai, Hong Kong (China), Bangkok (Thailand), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) and Singapore.
By such gloomy outlook, scientists are considering if there is any land capable of receiving tens or hundreds of climate refugees.
World Bank’s experts also warned some one tenth of Vietnamese population living in Cuu Long delta would lose their traditional habitats due to rising sea-level. This would be a serious problem since the region is considered a green belt of Vietnam, occupying 40 percent of farming land and producing 50 percent of rice and 80 percent of fruit production of the whole country.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is expecting international community will soon work out solutions to climate refugee-root conflicts. Nonetheless, regulations on climate refugees have not been adopted by international community, regardless that this phenomenon would menace global security.
T.P (TITC)