The 2021 Vietnam Annual Economic Report entitled “Repositioning Việt Nam in the Global Dynamics” was unveiled on July 29 by the Vietnam National University - University of Economics and Business.
The 2021 Vietnam Annual Economic Report entitled “Repositioning Việt Nam in the Global Dynamics” released on July 29 put forward growth scenarios for the remaining months. Photo VNA
The report analyses Việt Nam’s competitive edge based on its advantages and engagement in the global supply chain.
It also touches on the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy at large and Việt Nam in particular.
The report has been released annually by the university in association with its affiliate the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) for 12 years.
This year, exports and public investment are projected to become a driving force for the Vietnamese economy.
With influxes of foreign investment into Việt Nam, exports in the sector will have an important role to play for economic growth in upcoming years.
However, the growth rate of exports may strongly rely on the global economy recovery and shipments of traditional commodities, experts warned.
Based on results obtained in the first six months and the complexities of the pandemic, the VEPR believes that the economic growth in the remaining months will depend on efforts in COVID-19 prevention and control, vaccination speed and scale and efficiency of support packages, among others.
The institute also put forward growth scenarios for the remaining months.
If the pandemic is brought under control in late third quarter and Việt Nam reaches herd immunity in the second quarter of 2022, and the economic growth is projected at 4.5 – 5.1 per cent.
In other scenario, the pandemic is controlled in the next months and herd immunity is reached by Q1 2022, the national economy may expand between 5.4 per cent and 6.1 per cent.
If economic activities will not be able to resume by the fourth quarter of this year, Vietnam may see an economic growth rate of 3.5-4 per cent.