Dr. Le Anh Tuan, the Institute for Research of Climate Change’s office chief, shared information about the consequences of climate change with VietNamNet on the occasion of World Environment Day 2009.
What provinces in Vietnam will be severely hit by climate change?
The Red River and Mekong River Deltas will be affected the most, especially the Mekong River Delta, which has a low topography and suffers from the encroachment of sea water.
If the sea level rises by 1 metre, ten provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta will be stricken. Accordingly, the area for agriculture will be narrowed, resulting in the fall of farm produce output and the incomes of local people. The soil will be downgraded. Unemployment and emigration will occur.
According to scripts developed by the Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), the Mekong River Delta and other plains in Vietnam will face many problems. Annually, from January to April, these regions will suffer from dry and hot weather, a shortage of water, northeast wind, the encroachment of salt water, early droughts, thunder and lightning. From May to June, the regions will be hit by drought, early floods in July and August, landslides, rain, floods and flood-tides in September and October, storms and cold weather in November and December.
Could you tell our readers about abnormal changes that have happened recently under the impacts of climate change?
Different scripts on climate change have been compiled and they show one thing: hotter weather, the early coming of the rainy season and the encroachment of sea water.
As of March 2009, the dry season in the Mekong River Delta has had some abnormal phenomena: scorching sunshine during the day; however, there are out-of-season rains in some coastal provinces.
According to relevant agencies, the water flows of the Tien and Hau rivers in the Mekong River Delta in the dry season 30 years ago was 2,500cu.m per second but it fell to 1,600cu.m per second in 2006, a reduction of 36 percent. As the fresh water volume coming from upstream has decreased, sea water has encroached 60-70km into the mainland.
In recent years, the rainy season hasn’t obeyed the rules of the past. It often comes early, is heavier, and leaves late. In 2007 and 2008, the rainy season lasted until December and January of the next year, around one month later than previous years. This year, April had out-of-season rain while the rainfall in May was high.
The flood season also has been coming later. The highest floods often appear late. Before 2006, the highest flood was recorded in late September, early October, but since 2006, it has appeared in mid-October. Prolonged rains, the late coming of the highest flood, which coincides with the monthly flood-tide, has caused flooding in downstream areas.
In scripts about climate change, farmers always suffer severely but a recent report of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment said that around five percent of people are aware of climate change. What do you think about this fact?
That’s right! Farmers are very vulnerable to climate changes but they know nothing about the government’s plans to cope with climate change. They only know that they have poor crops, their soil becomes barren and they suffer a lot of risks.
First of all, the summer-autumn rice crop in Vietnam will be hit. Farmers need a lot of water in April when they plough the soil loose, but this time they will face early drought. In May and June, droughts will be more severe. In August, when rice doesn’t need water, the rainfall will increase, affecting rice productivity.
According to scientists, in the future, the total rainfall in the summer-autumn crop will fall, resulting in more serious early drought. The waterfall will reduce from 5 to 35 percent. The area which has temperatures of over 37oC will expand. The number of days with temperatures of over 40oC will increase. The flooded area will broaden in 2030 but the flood days in the upstream will reduce and increase in the downstream area. This change will affect shrimp-breeding activities in the southern provinces of Bac Lieu and Ca Mau.
Out-of-season rains this April made many salt workers become penniless.
Do you think that 1.965 trillion ($109 million) for the national programme against climate change is enough?
It depends. If Vietnam has assistance from foreign experts and organisations and spends the money economically, it can achieve its target.
What will your institute do to help the people to take initiative in coping with climate change?
We will transfer information as early as we can about climate change and suggestions to mitigate natural disasters to the government and people in the Mekong River Delta.
Some Mekong Delta provinces like Can Tho and Tra Vinh have asked our institute to help research measures to confront climate changes for them. This means that many provinces have taken initiative in copying with climate changes.