Storm intensity forecasting is still a big challenge for many countries, including those with advanced technology.
Storm intensity forecasting is now a challenge for the mankind
* Being hard even with international meteorological experts
On February 26th, besides the scientific workshop “Understanding technology and knowledge to meet the challenges in the new era of typhoon forecasting” hosted by the National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Mr. Raymond Tanabe, leader of consulting team for the International Typhoon Committee (also the director of a national meteorological forecasting center of the United States) said the storm intensity forecasting has been being a difficult problem for the world’s meteorology.
Not only in Vietnam, the meteorological experts of the United States feels difficult to predict the intensity of storms. The forecasting technology is now divided into three steps: The first step is based on observation data from satellite, radar as well as surface and automatic data. These are the first baseline data for hydro-meteorological forecasting and calculation.
The above data will be included in the computation models. Our computational model will help improve forecasting storms. In particular, we do not just use this model, the meteorological forecasting agency uses synthetic models and monitors the forecasting models of other countries as well.
The results of typhoon forecasting are very important, but more important is the information connection. The information plays a very important role and the media will help transmit information to the people more accurate and complete. Based on this information, the ministries, sectors and agencies will have measures to respond.
Mr. Raymond Tanabe answers questions at the scientific workshop “Understanding technology and knowledge to meet the challenges in the new era of typhoon forecasting”
According to Mr. Raymond Tanabe, the meteorological agencies in the world are only good at forecasting the location and moment of storms. However, recently countries pay a lot of effort to improve the technology, increase data through surveillance by aircraft to improve the forecasting accuracy. Due to the availability of data, the forecasting becomes better. Thanks to the borderless cooperation between countries, the meteorological agencies can share data with each other. “However, in the future, the typhoon forecasting should continue to be studied in order to obtain more reliable information on the intensity of storms," said Mr. Raymond Tanabe.
* Vietnam is developing suitable technology
Sharing on forecasting level and technology of Vietnam, Mr. Tran Hong Thai, Deputy General Director of the National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) said, the typhoon forecasting in Vietnam still meets many difficulties, at the lower level to compare with other countries in the region and the world. Its monitoring system is scattered; technology is out of date, leading the late and inaccurate data receiving.
"Of course, Vietnam has focused on investment in this field in recent years, so it is trying to build appropriate and advanced technology," said Mr. Tran Hong Thai.
In addition, the Deputy General Director affirmed that from the receipt of assistance from developed countries, Vietnam will take part in larger roles and cooperate in transferring technology to Laos and Cambodia.
On this issue, Mr. Raymond Tanabe said that the distance between the observation stations depends on the terrain conditions of each country. For example, the country having many hills will have a higher number of observation stations because weather at the mountain and plain is very different. In contrast, countries with flat topography need fewer monitoring stations.
In Asia, typhoons often land into the mainland from the sea. "When storms hit the mainland, we should use helicopters to put observation equipment or use satellites to collect information," he said.
Being agreed with Mr. Raymond Tanabe, Mr. Tran Hong Thai said that with the participation of UBB, Vietnam has received many cooperation and supports in research and training, contributing to serve effectively for the meteorological warning and forecasting, especially storms and floods in Vietnam.
K.Linh